Yield Forecasting

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Revision as of 11:49, 23 June 2011 by Raymond (talk | contribs) (The forecasting approach)
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Goal and assumptions

The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS

The objective of the quantitative yield forecast of the MCYF System is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).

The forecasting approach

The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:


Forecasted yield = f(t) + f(i) + residual error


Where:


The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer also having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.


Forecast input data

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Forecast methods

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Software tools

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