Yield Forecasting

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Revision as of 12:16, 20 June 2011 by Raymond (talk | contribs) (Forecast objective)
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General description

The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS

The yield forecasting module is one of the five modules of the MCYFS and can be split in 3 topics.

  1. Forecast objective
  2. Forecast input data
  3. Software tools

Forecast objective and apporouch

Goal and assumptions

The objective of the quantitative forecast level (3) of the MCYF System is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).

The forecasting approach

The crop yield forecast procedure assesses yield forecasts in ton.ha -1 fresh weight using different methods and software tools. The forecasted yield is assumed to be a function of:

  • observed yield trend and/or
  • crop simulation and/or
  • meteorological data and/or
  • satellite data and/or
  • other data and/or
  • residual error

This approach can generate a many forecasts, only part of them statistically performant and acceptable and a few respecting a direct link cause (climate impact)-consequence (crop yield) as logic.

Forecast input data

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Forecast methods

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Software tools

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