Yield Forecasting
General description
The yield forecasting module is one of the five modules of the MCYFS and can be split in 3 topics.
Forecast objective and apporouch
Goal and assumptions
The objective of the quantitative forecast level (3) of the MCYF System is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).
The forecasting approach
The crop yield forecast procedure assesses yield forecasts in ton.ha -1 fresh weight using different methods and software tools. The forecasted yield is assumed to be a function of:
- observed yield trend and/or
- crop simulation and/or
- meteorological data and/or
- satellite data and/or
- other data and/or
- residual error
This approach can generate a many forecasts, only part of them statistically performant and acceptable and a few respecting a direct link cause (climate impact)-consequence (crop yield) as logic.
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Objective of the quantitative forecast
Forecast input data
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Forecast methods
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Software tools
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