Difference between revisions of "Yield Forecasting"
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[[File:Flowchart_mcyfs_modules_forecasting.jpg|thumb|right|200px|The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS]] | [[File:Flowchart_mcyfs_modules_forecasting.jpg|thumb|right|200px|The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS]] | ||
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The objective of the quantitative yield forecast of the MCYF System is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest). | The objective of the quantitative yield forecast of the MCYF System is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest). | ||
| − | + | ==The forecasting approach== | |
The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error: | The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error: | ||
Revision as of 15:57, 21 June 2011
Goal and assumptions
The objective of the quantitative yield forecast of the MCYF System is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).
The forecasting approach
The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:
Forecasted yield = f(t) + f(i) + residual error
Where:
- f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years
- f(i) = optional function of one ore more indicators that originate from: Weather Monitoring, Remote Sensing, Crop Simulation or other data.
This approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer also having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.
More information
Objective of the quantitative forecast
Forecast input data
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More information
Forecast methods
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Software tools
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