Difference between revisions of "Yield Forecasting"
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− | == | + | ==Objective and approach of the yield forecast== |
[[File:Flowchart_mcyfs_modules_forecasting.jpg|thumb|right|200px|The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS]] | [[File:Flowchart_mcyfs_modules_forecasting.jpg|thumb|right|200px|The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS]] | ||
The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest). | The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest). | ||
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The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error: | The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error: | ||
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''Where:'' | ''Where:'' | ||
* ''f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years'' | * ''f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years'' | ||
− | * ''f(i) = optional function of one or more indicators that originate from | + | * ''f(i) = optional function of one or more indicators that originate from other parts of the MCYFS.'' |
− | The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer | + | The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield. |
+ | {{scientific_box_2| | ||
+ | *[[Objective of the yield forecast]] | ||
+ | *[[Approach of the yield forecast]] | ||
+ | *[[Forecasting methods]] | ||
+ | *[[Qualitative assessment of mars prediction]] | ||
+ | }} | ||
− | + | ==Forecast input data== | |
+ | The data for the yield forecast procedure were extensively discussed in the other modules: | ||
+ | *[[Weather Monitoring]] | ||
+ | *[[Crop Simulation]] | ||
+ | *[[Remote Sensing]] | ||
− | + | Other input data only used in the yield forecast module include: | |
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*[[National yield statistics]] | *[[National yield statistics]] | ||
*[[Additional sources]] | *[[Additional sources]] | ||
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==Software tools== | ==Software tools== | ||
− | + | Currently 2 statistical software applications are in operation: the 'classic forecast application' and the [[Software Tools#CGMS statistical tool|CGMS statistical tool]]. The 'classic forecast application' is backwards compatible with other software packages such as the [[Software Tools#Control board|Control board]] but has limited functionality. | |
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[[Category:MCYFS introduction]] | [[Category:MCYFS introduction]] | ||
[[Category:Yield Forecasting]] | [[Category:Yield Forecasting]] |
Latest revision as of 11:46, 19 June 2012
Objective and approach of the yield forecast
The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).
The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:
Forecasted yield = f(t) + f(i) + residual error
Where:
- f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years
- f(i) = optional function of one or more indicators that originate from other parts of the MCYFS.
The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.
More information
Forecast input data
The data for the yield forecast procedure were extensively discussed in the other modules:
Other input data only used in the yield forecast module include: