Difference between revisions of "Yield Forecasting"

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{{Non expert}}
 
{{Non expert}}
==Goal and assumptions==
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==Objective and approach of the yield forecast==
 
[[File:Flowchart_mcyfs_modules_forecasting.jpg|thumb|right|200px|The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS]]
 
[[File:Flowchart_mcyfs_modules_forecasting.jpg|thumb|right|200px|The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS]]
The objective of the quantitative yield forecast of the MCYF System is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).
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The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).
  
==The forecasting approach==
 
 
The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:
 
The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:
  
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''Where:''
 
''Where:''
 
* ''f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years''
 
* ''f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years''
* ''f(i) = optional function of one ore more indicators that originate from: [[Weather Monitoring]], [[Remote Sensing]], [[Crop Simulation]] or other data.''
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* ''f(i) = optional function of one or more indicators that originate from other parts of the MCYFS.''
  
  
This approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer also having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.
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The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.
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{{scientific_box_2|
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*[[Objective of the yield forecast]]
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*[[Approach of the yield forecast]]
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*[[Forecasting methods]]
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*[[Qualitative assessment of mars prediction]]
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}}
  
{{scientific_box_2|[[Objective of the quantitative forecast]]}}
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==Forecast input data==
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The data for the yield forecast procedure were extensively discussed in the other modules:
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*[[Weather Monitoring]]
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*[[Crop Simulation]]
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*[[Remote Sensing]]
  
==Forecast input data==
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Other input data only used in the yield forecast module include:
Text in popular style
 
{{scientific_box_2|
 
*[[Analysis of crop indicators]]
 
*[[Remote sense based indicators]]
 
 
*[[National yield statistics]]
 
*[[National yield statistics]]
 
*[[Additional sources]]
 
*[[Additional sources]]
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==Forecast methods==
 
Text in popular style
 
{{scientific_box_2|
 
*[[Forecasting methods]]
 
*[[Qualitative assessment of mars prediction]]
 
}}
 
  
 
==Software tools==
 
==Software tools==
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Currently 2 statistical software applications are in operation: the 'classic forecast application' and the [[Software Tools#CGMS statistical tool|CGMS statistical tool]]. The 'classic forecast application' is backwards compatible with other software packages such as the [[Software Tools#Control board|Control board]] but has limited functionality.
{{scientific_box_2|
 
*[[Software Tools#CGMS statistical tool|CGMS statistical tool]]
 
*[[Control board]]
 
}}
 
  
 
[[Category:MCYFS introduction]]
 
[[Category:MCYFS introduction]]
 
[[Category:Yield Forecasting]]
 
[[Category:Yield Forecasting]]

Latest revision as of 10:46, 19 June 2012



Objective and approach of the yield forecast

The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS

The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).

The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:


Forecasted yield = f(t) + f(i) + residual error


Where:

  • f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years
  • f(i) = optional function of one or more indicators that originate from other parts of the MCYFS.


The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.


Forecast input data

The data for the yield forecast procedure were extensively discussed in the other modules:

Other input data only used in the yield forecast module include:

Software tools

Currently 2 statistical software applications are in operation: the 'classic forecast application' and the CGMS statistical tool. The 'classic forecast application' is backwards compatible with other software packages such as the Control board but has limited functionality.