Difference between revisions of "Yield Forecasting"

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{{Popular}}
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__NOTOC__
Detailed information on other pages
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{{Non expert}}
*[[Objective of the quantitative forecast]]
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==Objective and approach of the yield forecast==
*[[Data input for forecasting]]
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[[File:Flowchart_mcyfs_modules_forecasting.jpg|thumb|right|200px|The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS]]
*[[Mcyfs forecasting methods]]
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The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).
*[[Control board tool to guide the statistical data Analysis]]
 
*[[Qualitative assessment of mars prediction (quamp) results]]
 
  
[[Category:MCYFS modules]]
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The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:
[[Category:Popular style]]
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'''''Forecasted yield = f(t) + f(i) + residual error'''''
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''Where:''
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* ''f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years''
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* ''f(i) = optional function of one or more indicators that originate from other parts of the MCYFS.''
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The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.
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{{scientific_box_2|
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*[[Objective of the yield forecast]]
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*[[Approach of the yield forecast]]
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*[[Forecasting methods]]
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*[[Qualitative assessment of mars prediction]]
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}}
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==Forecast input data==
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The data for the yield forecast procedure were extensively discussed in the other modules:
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*[[Weather Monitoring]]
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*[[Crop Simulation]]
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*[[Remote Sensing]]
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Other input data only used in the yield forecast module include:
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*[[National yield statistics]]
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*[[Additional sources]]
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==Software tools==
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Currently 2 statistical software applications are in operation: the 'classic forecast application' and the [[Software Tools#CGMS statistical tool|CGMS statistical tool]]. The 'classic forecast application' is backwards compatible with other software packages such as the [[Software Tools#Control board|Control board]] but has limited functionality.
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[[Category:MCYFS introduction]]
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[[Category:Yield Forecasting]]

Latest revision as of 11:46, 19 June 2012



Objective and approach of the yield forecast

The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS

The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).

The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:


Forecasted yield = f(t) + f(i) + residual error


Where:

  • f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years
  • f(i) = optional function of one or more indicators that originate from other parts of the MCYFS.


The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.


Forecast input data

The data for the yield forecast procedure were extensively discussed in the other modules:

Other input data only used in the yield forecast module include:

Software tools

Currently 2 statistical software applications are in operation: the 'classic forecast application' and the CGMS statistical tool. The 'classic forecast application' is backwards compatible with other software packages such as the Control board but has limited functionality.