Difference between revisions of "Yield Forecasting"

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(Forecast input data)
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''Where:''
 
''Where:''
 
* ''f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years''
 
* ''f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years''
* ''f(i) = optional function of one or more indicators that originate from: [[Weather Monitoring]], [[Remote Sensing]], [[Crop Simulation]] or other data.''
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* ''f(i) = optional function of one or more indicators that originate from other parts of the MCYFS.''
  
  
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*[[Crop Simulation]]
 
*[[Crop Simulation]]
 
*[[Remote Sensing]]
 
*[[Remote Sensing]]
*National yield statistics
 
*Additional sources
 
  
The National yield statistics are acquire from EUROSTAT which contains data starting in 1955 ([[References|Vossen and Rijks, 1995]]).
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Other input data only used in the yield forecast module include:
 
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*[[National yield statistics]]
{{scientific_box_2|[[National yield statistics]]}}
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*[[Additional sources]]
  
 
==Forecast methods==
 
==Forecast methods==
Text in popular style
 
{{scientific_box_2|
 
*[[Forecasting methods]]
 
*[[Qualitative assessment of mars prediction]]
 
}}
 
  
 
==Software tools==
 
==Software tools==
Text in popular style
 
{{scientific_box_2|
 
*[[Software Tools#CGMS statistical tool|CGMS statistical tool]]
 
*[[Control board]]
 
}}
 
  
 
[[Category:MCYFS introduction]]
 
[[Category:MCYFS introduction]]
 
[[Category:Yield Forecasting]]
 
[[Category:Yield Forecasting]]

Revision as of 14:18, 24 June 2011



Goal and approach of the yield forecast

The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS

The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).

The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:


Forecasted yield = f(t) + f(i) + residual error


Where:

  • f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years
  • f(i) = optional function of one or more indicators that originate from other parts of the MCYFS.


The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.


Forecast input data

The data for the yield forecast procedure were extensively discussed in the other modules:

Other input data only used in the yield forecast module include:

Forecast methods

Software tools