Difference between revisions of "Yield Forecasting"

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{{Non expert}}
 
{{Non expert}}
==Goal and assumptions==
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==Goal and approach of the yield forecast==
 
[[File:Flowchart_mcyfs_modules_forecasting.jpg|thumb|right|200px|The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS]]
 
[[File:Flowchart_mcyfs_modules_forecasting.jpg|thumb|right|200px|The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS]]
 
The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).
 
The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).
  
==The forecasting approach==
 
 
The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:
 
The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:
  
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The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer also having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.
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The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.
 
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{{scientific_box_2|[[Objective of the quantitative forecast]]}}
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*[[Objective of the yield forecast]]
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*[[Approach of the yield forecast]]
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==Forecast input data==
 
==Forecast input data==

Revision as of 12:59, 23 June 2011



Goal and approach of the yield forecast

The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS

The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).

The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:


Forecasted yield = f(t) + f(i) + residual error


Where:


The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.


Forecast input data

Text in popular style


Forecast methods

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Software tools

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