Difference between revisions of "Yield Forecasting"
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| − | ==Goal and | + | ==Goal and approach of the yield forecast== |
[[File:Flowchart_mcyfs_modules_forecasting.jpg|thumb|right|200px|The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS]] | [[File:Flowchart_mcyfs_modules_forecasting.jpg|thumb|right|200px|The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS]] | ||
The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest). | The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest). | ||
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The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error: | The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error: | ||
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| − | The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer | + | The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield. |
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| − | {{scientific_box_2|[[Objective of the | + | *[[Objective of the yield forecast]] |
| + | *[[Approach of the yield forecast]] | ||
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==Forecast input data== | ==Forecast input data== | ||
Revision as of 12:59, 23 June 2011
Goal and approach of the yield forecast
The objective of the yield forecast is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).
The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:
Forecasted yield = f(t) + f(i) + residual error
Where:
- f(t) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years
- f(i) = optional function of one or more indicators that originate from: Weather Monitoring, Remote Sensing, Crop Simulation or other data.
The approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.
Forecast input data
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More information
Forecast methods
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Software tools
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