Difference between revisions of "Yield Forecasting"

From Agri4castWiki
Jump to: navigation, search
(Forecast objective and apporouch)
Line 9: Line 9:
 
==Forecast objective and apporouch==
 
==Forecast objective and apporouch==
 
====Goal and assumptions====
 
====Goal and assumptions====
The objective of the quantitative forecast level (3) of the MCYF System is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).
+
The objective of the quantitative yield forecast of the MCYF System is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).
  
 
====The forecasting approach====
 
====The forecasting approach====
The crop yield forecast procedure assesses yield forecasts in ton.ha -1 fresh weight using different methods and software tools. The forecasted yield is assumed to be a function of:
+
The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:
* observed yield trend and/or
 
* crop simulation and/or
 
* meteorological data and/or
 
* satellite data and/or
 
* other data and/or
 
* residual error
 
  
This approach can generate a many forecasts, only part of them statistically performant and acceptable and a few respecting a direct link cause (climate impact)-consequence (crop yield) as logic.
 
  
 +
'''''Forecasted yield = f1(trend) + f2(indicator(s)) + residual error'''''
  
 +
 +
''Where:''
 +
* ''f1(trend) = function of the trend of observed yields over the last 10 years''
 +
* ''f2(indicator(s)) = function of one ore more indicators that originate from:''
 +
** ''[[Weather Monitoring]]''
 +
** ''[[Remote Sensing]]''
 +
** ''[[Crop Simulation]]''
 +
** ''Other data''
 +
'
 +
 +
Function f2 can even be ommited. This approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer also having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.
  
 
{{scientific_box_2|[[Objective of the quantitative forecast]]}}
 
{{scientific_box_2|[[Objective of the quantitative forecast]]}}

Revision as of 15:21, 21 June 2011



The role of yield forecasting within the MCYFS

The yield forecasting module is one of the five modules of the MCYFS and can be split in 3 topics.

  1. Forecast objective
  2. Forecast input data
  3. Software tools

Forecast objective and apporouch

Goal and assumptions

The objective of the quantitative yield forecast of the MCYF System is to provide the most likely, precise, accurate, scientific, traceable and independent forecasts for the main crops’ yields at EU level taking into account the effect of the climate during the season as early as possible during the cropping campaign (and until harvest).

The forecasting approach

The forecasted crop yield is calculated with a combination of methods and software tools. It is assumed to be a function of the trend of observed yields, possibly corrected with a function of one or more indicators from elsewhere out of the MCYFS and closed with a residual error:


Forecasted yield = f1(trend) + f2(indicator(s)) + residual error


Where:

'

Function f2 can even be ommited. This approach of using different combinations of indicators results in a large number of possible forecasts with only a few being statistically significant and even fewer also having a logical causal relation between indicator and observed yield.


Forecast input data

Text in popular style


Forecast methods

Text in popular style


Software tools

Text in popular style