Improvement of MCYFS forecasts

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The purpose of this section is to examine whether the performance of MCYFS in the period 1998-2002 improved compared to its performance in the period 1993-1997. Performance is assessed in terms of average error size and more specifically in terms of RMSPE.

Separately for each crop monthly RMSPE have been computed averaging the MCYFS errors, for the given month, during the two periods in question. Errors refer to EU-total forecasts. EU-total denotes EU12 until 1995 and EU15 from 1996 onwards.

Moreover, a Wilcoxon test on each month's absolute percentage errors is applied to test the null hypothesis (H 0) that absolute percentage errors have not improved (i.e. have not decreased) during the period 1998-2002 as opposed to the period 1993-1997. Therefore small p-values (less than 0.05 in this document) reject the null hypothesis and show improvement (reduction) of errors and hence better performance of MCYFS.