Difference between revisions of "Forecasting methods"

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(Background)
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{{scientific}}
 
{{scientific}}
 
==Background==
 
==Background==
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Various authors have proposed to subdivide crop yield in three components: mean yield, multi-annual trend and residual variation (e.g. Vossen, 1989; Dagnelie et al. , 1983; Dennet et al. , 1980; Odumodu and Griffits, 1980). It is assumed that the interacting effects of climate, soil, management, technology, etc. determine the mean yield. Observed national, regional and sub-regional yields show a trend in time. The trend is mainly due to long-term economic and technological dynamics such as increased fertiliser application, improved crop management methods, new high yielding varieties, etc. The third component, the residual variation, is considered to be the variation among years (Dennet et al. , 1980). It is exactly this part which should be explained by weather, crop and remote sensing indicators.
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According to Dennet et al. (1980) and Odumodu and Griffits (1980), the technological time trend should be removed from the crop yield time series, assuming that the residual variation is independent of that trend. This approach can be summarised as (Vossen, 1989):
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{{Hidden
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|
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Y<sub>T,obs</sub> equals Y<sub>avg</sub> + ''f''(T) + e <br>
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Y<sub>T,est</sub> equals Y<sub>avg</sub> + ''f''(T) <br>
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Y<sub>T,obs</sub> - Y<sub>T,est</sub> equals e <br>
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e equals ''f''(weather)
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|where:
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* ''Y<sub>T,obs</sub>: observed yield in year T [ton.ha-1]''
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* ''Y<sub>avg</sub>  : mean yield [ton.ha-1]''
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* ''f(T)            : technological trend as a function of time [ton.ha-1]''
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* ''e                : residual, not explained by trend [ton.ha-1]''
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* ''Y<sub>T,est</sub>: observed yield in year T [ton.ha-1]''
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* ''f(Weather)      : function of weather variables [ton.ha-1]''
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}}
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Palm and Dagnelie (1993) fitted various time trend functions to national yield series (ton.ha -1 ) of several crops for 9 EU member states. Regressions were executed for the period prior to 1983 and a forecast for 1983 was made. This procedure was repeated for successive years up till 1988. The prediction results were compared with national yield values. Of the tested functions a quadratic function of time performed best. However, differences with a simple linear trend function were small. In a next step, these authors removed the trend from the yield series using the quadratic function. The residuals for the period prior to 1983 were regressed against various meteorological parameters and a prediction for 1983 was made. Again, this procedure was repeated for successive years up till 1988. This was done for 19 Departments in France . Comparing the predicted and official yield series demonstrated that the applied meteorological variables did not improve the prediction accuracy.
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Swanson and Nyankori (1979) for corn and soybean production in the USA , Sakamoto (1978) for wheat production in South Australia , Agrawal and Jain (1982) for rice yields in the Raipur District in India , considered the technological time-trend dependent on the residual variation. According to Winter and Musick (1993), Hough (1990b) and Smith (1975), weather affects farm management practices such as planted area, timing of field operations, application of inputs, etc. Hence, the time trend should be analysed simultaneously with the explaining variables. This approach can be summarised as (Vossen, 1989):
  
 
==Prediction model==
 
==Prediction model==

Revision as of 16:29, 5 July 2011



Background

Various authors have proposed to subdivide crop yield in three components: mean yield, multi-annual trend and residual variation (e.g. Vossen, 1989; Dagnelie et al. , 1983; Dennet et al. , 1980; Odumodu and Griffits, 1980). It is assumed that the interacting effects of climate, soil, management, technology, etc. determine the mean yield. Observed national, regional and sub-regional yields show a trend in time. The trend is mainly due to long-term economic and technological dynamics such as increased fertiliser application, improved crop management methods, new high yielding varieties, etc. The third component, the residual variation, is considered to be the variation among years (Dennet et al. , 1980). It is exactly this part which should be explained by weather, crop and remote sensing indicators.

According to Dennet et al. (1980) and Odumodu and Griffits (1980), the technological time trend should be removed from the crop yield time series, assuming that the residual variation is independent of that trend. This approach can be summarised as (Vossen, 1989):



Palm and Dagnelie (1993) fitted various time trend functions to national yield series (ton.ha -1 ) of several crops for 9 EU member states. Regressions were executed for the period prior to 1983 and a forecast for 1983 was made. This procedure was repeated for successive years up till 1988. The prediction results were compared with national yield values. Of the tested functions a quadratic function of time performed best. However, differences with a simple linear trend function were small. In a next step, these authors removed the trend from the yield series using the quadratic function. The residuals for the period prior to 1983 were regressed against various meteorological parameters and a prediction for 1983 was made. Again, this procedure was repeated for successive years up till 1988. This was done for 19 Departments in France . Comparing the predicted and official yield series demonstrated that the applied meteorological variables did not improve the prediction accuracy.

Swanson and Nyankori (1979) for corn and soybean production in the USA , Sakamoto (1978) for wheat production in South Australia , Agrawal and Jain (1982) for rice yields in the Raipur District in India , considered the technological time-trend dependent on the residual variation. According to Winter and Musick (1993), Hough (1990b) and Smith (1975), weather affects farm management practices such as planted area, timing of field operations, application of inputs, etc. Hence, the time trend should be analysed simultaneously with the explaining variables. This approach can be summarised as (Vossen, 1989):

Prediction model

Text in scientific style

Trend analysis

Text in scientific style

Other prediction models

Text in scientific style

scenario analysis in SPSS

Text in scientific style


More text in scientific style

etc..