View source for CoBo (Control Board) - the tool used for statistical forecasting

==What is CoBo used for?==
CoBo is a standalone software tool that is used for both importing yield, area, and production data, and for the actual crop yield and production forecasting. The purpose of CoBo is to reduce the time needed to access data, as well as to support the forecast analysis with the semi-automatic processing of the data.
CoBo consists of two main modules:

=== CoBoNet Import Manager ===
This module is used by '''Statistical Administrators''' to prepare the environment for the Users, and subsequently to inspect the data. It allows to:
*Import statistical data 
*Inspect, filter, edit, and merge the imported values 
*View and analyze the data, both in tabular and graphical form, using an interactive visualizer 

For further information on how to use the '''CoBo Importer''' application, please refer to the User Guide, which you can find here: [[File:CoBoNet_Import_Manager_User_Guide.pdf|CoboNet Import Manager User Guide]]

=== CoBo Forecasts Manager ===
Both '''Analysts''' and '''Supervisors''' can use this module to create forecasts. It allows to:
*See and inspect existing forecasts
*Create and manage new forecasts
For further information on how to use the '''CoBo Forecasts Manager''' application, see the User Guide: [[File:CoBo_3.1_Forecasts_User_Guide.pdf|CoBo 3.1 Forecasts User Guide]]

== First Step: Import and Inspection ==
The picture here below shows the '''CoBoNet Import Manager''' start window:

[[File:MainEmpty.png|COBO Import Manager]]

The following summarizes the user interface elements and the tabs in the window:
*'''Imports list''' (left-sided) - The list includes the existing imports, organized by area. You can select an import and then inspect, modify, update, and check the imported data. The most recent imports appear in '''bold'''.
*'''New import''' button - This function allows importing new data by specifying the data sources (only enabled for Administrators).
*'''Import Info''' tab - This tab includes the information about the import, either new or existing (the name, the area, the user, and the import date, as well as if this is the most updated import). The '''Import sources''' grid shows the data sources that compose the active import, if any.
*'''Imported values''' tab - Once an import has been loaded or created, this tab lists all the values that have been imported. Administrators can edit these values.
*'''Values checking''' tab - This tab allows inspecting the imported values in terms of verifying and if necessary correct the values.
*'''View data''' tab - This tab allows viewing the data both in tabular and in graphical form. It allows saving, exporting, and managing data displays.

== Second Step: Viewing and analyzing forecasts ==
'''Analysts''' and '''Supervisors''' use CoBo Forecasts to view, analyze, and make crop yield forecasts.
They can verify how the data have been used, which analysis have been selected, and which methods have been applied.
The following shows the main '''Control Board Console''' that allows selecting the Area and the Analysis:

[[File:Forecast1.png|Control Board Console]]

After selecting the analysis, you will be able to view the '''Forecasts Overview''' and to display the data as a graph and/or in tabular form:

[[File:Forecasts3.png|Forecasts Overview]]

[[File:Forecast4.png|Graph View]]

The following summarizes how to use the other functions in the application:
*'''Crop Yield Table''' - This function allows Analysts to compare the selected analysis with a different reference year.
*'''Crop Yield Table With Analysis Comparison''' – This function groups the functions of the Crop Yield Table and Analysis Comparison Table, which you can compare to the selected analysis both with a different reference year and with another analysis.
*'''Cereals Table''' – This function has the same function as the '''Crop Yield Table''', but relates to cereals.
*'''Analysis Comparison Table''' – This function allows comparing two analysis, that is, to compare the value of the '''Selected Analysis''' with another one. This way, the analyst can verify the difference between two different analyses.
*'''Forecasts Origin Table''' – This function, besides showing the forecast’s value, allows verifying which method was used to create the forecast ('''Forecast Method''').

For further information on how to use the application, see the User Guide: [[File:CoBo_3.1_Forecasts_User_Guide.pdf|CoBo 3.1 Forecasts User Guide]].

== Types of Analysis ==
The statistical methodologies accessible through CoBo rely on the following main approaches:

=== Regression analysis ===
Regression aims to establish a relationship between a dependent variable - the yield - and one or more independent variables summarizing climate and/or weather effects on crops.
Two methods are available in CoBo for regression analysis:
*Using the CGMS Statistical Tool (CST) to calculate the regression: This tool estimates each regression coefficient (also the trend) in one-step.
*Calculating the Regression on Residuals: Similar, but the trend is defined by the User.

For further information, please refer to the document that you can find here: [[File:CoBo_3.1_Log_File_Contents.pdf|CoBo 3.1 Log File Contents]], which describes this technique in detail.

=== Scenario analysis ===
Scenario analysis aims to establish similarities between past years and the present year in terms of agro-meteorological and simulated crop conditions. Once agro-climatic years are detected which are similar to the current year, the yields of these years are associated with the current season taking into account any existing yield trend.

=== Trend Analysis ===
The Trend forecast represents the immediate and basic forecast within the crop yield forecasting system.
A linear time trend allows representing the influence of long-term economic and technological dynamics.
Besides the default linear trend, other analytical functions (such as quadratic, exponential, and logarithmic) are available, giving the analyst the ability to choose a trend that fits with the shape of the statistical yield time-series.

=== Averages ===
The yield forecast can be based on the calculation of the simple or trimmed average of past years (usually, the last five years are taken into account).
Normally, this method is chosen when no other method (prediction models, trend, and scenario analysis) leads to satisfactory results or when there is a lack of data - a gap - in the time series.

== Last Step: Publishing Final Forecast ==
Once a User accesses CoBo Forecasts with '''Administrator''' rights, the analysis management functionality becomes available. After properly managing the forecast that the Analysts and Supervisors have completed, the '''Publish Final Forecasts''' functionality allows choosing which forecast to publish:

[[File:PublishForecasts2.png|Publish Forecasts]]

For detailed information on how to use the '''Administrator''' functions of CoBo, please refer to the document [[File:CoBo_Administrator_User_Guide.pdf|CoBo Administrator User Guide]]

[[Category:Yield Forecasting]]
[[Category:Software Tools]]