Difference between revisions of "Calibration"

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{{scientific}}
 
{{scientific}}
−
==General description==
+
===Calibration tools===
−
The calibration of CGMS-WOFOST and CGMS-LINGRA for new crops and recalibration for the crops already simulated in CGMS are performed with different data sets.
+
Different tools are available to calibrate crop parameters. Some tools are more suitable for local calibration, other tools are more suitable for regional calibrations. Sometimes crop parameters can be calculated or estimated using other tools.
  
−
The four data sets currently available are:
+
# [[Software_Tools#WOFOST_Control_Centre|WOFOST Control Centre]]: user interface to run wofost crop model and interactive selection of crop-, soil-, weather-files. Changes interactively model parameters. Analyse results in table and graphical format. Used for manually local calibrations.  
−
# CGMS data sets: the internal tables of crop calendars and crop parameters already present in the system which are updated during calibration.
+
# [[Software_Tools#Calplat|Calplat]]. Optimization platform to create zonations and execute automatic calibrations.
−
# Crop-KUL DB which is a DB of crop parameters (Kc coefficients included) made in 1997 with the KUL University.
+
# [[Software_Tools#Calibration_Manager|Calibration Manager]]. Python script that combines Python wofost with open optimizer NLopt to automatically calibrate multiple zones and multiple parameters.
−
# MOCA (Monograph on Candidate Countries) DB which collects the most recent crop data on new Member States. This DB was released in 2003.
+
# Various tools (e.g. xls, scripts, gis,...)
−
# PASK (Pasture Knowledge base) DB which collects the most recent pasture data on new Member States. This DB was released in 2003.
 
  
−
The data are available at climate grid resolution.
+
===AgroPheno database===
 +
The agropheno data are stored in a relational database that contains observations from experimental sites, expert knowledge and regional calendars with their metadata. The metadata can be used to select sources or types of data to be included in the calibration. XY locations of experimental sites and regional calendars are mapped to grid numbers of the regular target agro climatic grids that are defined for each [[Regional_Windows|regional window]]. The database contains the following data sets:
 +
 
 +
<pre>
 +
1  PASK: pasture data from candidate member States
 +
2  Boons-Prins study, inserted in 2005
 +
3  MOCA: crop data from candidate member states, inserted in 2005
 +
4  Crop-KUL: crop parameters, inserted in 2006
 +
5  GEOSYS/ASEMARS, inserted in 2006 and 2007
 +
6  ZAMG (Zentralanstalt fur meteorologie und geodynamik), inserted in 2008
 +
7  AETS: Data for Ukraine and Turkey, inserted in 2016
 +
9  MARS Activity-B-2001, inserted in 2016
 +
10 Bilateral Austria, inserted in 2016
 +
11 Bilateral Germany, inserted in 2016
 +
12 Bilateral Slovakia, inserted in 2016
 +
13 Bilateral Slovenia, inserted in 2016
 +
14 Bilateral Russia/Kazakhstan, inserted in 2016
 +
15 MOCCASIN project, inserted in 2017
 +
16 MARSOP4 - general targets for LAI and HI, inserted in 2017
 +
17 GLOBAM, inserted in 2009
 +
18 Huabei CGMS, inserted in 2009
 +
19 RUBKA, inserted in 2009
 +
20 Asia CGMS (I. Savin), inserted in 2009
 +
21 FAO crop calendars
 +
</pre>
 +
 
 +
===Calibration levels===
 +
The following calibration levels are identified for regional and local calibrations. Most calibrations start with level 1, optionally followed by 2 or 3 and/or 4. They are executed in this order, gradually further optimizing results. Level 0 is not considered an agro phenological calibration. In this case parameters are calculated or estimated, using causal relationships other than with agropheno data.
  
 
{|class="wikitable"
 
{|class="wikitable"
−
!Crop !! DB sources EU15 !! DB Sources EU25 !! Type !! MODEL
+
!Level                              !! Regional          !! Local
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Winter (Soft) Wheat || CGMS/KUL-Univ. DB || CGMS/KUL Univ. & MOCA DB || Recalibration || WOFOST
+
|0: calculate/estimate              || e.g. TSUM1, TSUM2, VERNSAT, VERNBASE, DLO,... || e.g. TSUM1, TSUM2, VERNSAT, VERNBASE, DLO,...
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Spring Barley || CGMS/KUL-Univ. DB || CGMS/KUL Univ. & MOCA DB || Recalibration || WOFOST
+
|1: Phenology                      || TSUM1, TSUM2      || TSUMEM, TBASEM, TSUM1, TSUM2, DLO, DLC, TEFFMX
 +
|-                                                                     
 +
|2: Potential yield level - simple  || AMAXTB            || AMAXTB, SLATB, SPAN
 +
|-                                                                     
 +
|3: Potential yield level - complex || SLATB, SPAN, FOTB || AMAXTB, SLATB, SPAN, RGRLAI, LAIEM, TDWI, FLTB, FRTB, FOTB, TMPFTB, RDRRTB
 +
|-                                                                    
 +
|4: Water limited yield level      || CFET, RDMCR      || CFET, RDMCR, PERDL, DEPNR
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
Required agropheno data for the respected levels and resolutions:
 +
{|class="wikitable"
 +
!Level                              !! Regional !! Local
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Winter Rape seed || CGMS/KUL-Univ. DB || CGMS/KUL Univ. & MOCA DB || Recalibration || WOFOST
+
|0: calculate/estimate              || depending on causal relation || depending on causal relation
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Grain maize || CGMS/KUL-Univ. DB || CGMS/KUL Univ. & MOCA DB || Recalibration || WOFOST
+
|1: Phenology                      || Regional calendars or observations of sowing, emergence, flowering, maturity and harvest  || observations of sowing, emergence, flowering, maturity and harvest for different years
 +
|-                                                                     
 +
|2: Potential yield level - simple  || Observations of total biomass under optimal conditions for locations or regions || observations of LAI-max and total biomass under optimal conditions
 +
|-                                                                     
 +
|3: Potential yield level - complex || Observations of LAI-max, total biomass, storage organs and/or harvest index under optimal conditions for locations or regions || observations of LAI, total biomass, weights of leaves, stems, storage organs and roots over time during the growth period under optimal conditions
 +
|-                                                                    
 +
|4: Water limited yield level      || Observations of total biomass, storage organs and/or harvest index under rainfed conditions for locations or regions || observations of LAI, total biomass, weights of leaves, stems and storage organs and possibly crop transpiration, evaporation and rooting depth over time during the growth period under water-limited conditions
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
===Calibration steps===
 +
The calibration consist in the following subtasks:
 +
* Consistency check of the datasets (area of interest, agropheno data).
 +
* Select calibration tool
 +
* Select or create zonation and crop mask
 +
* Select default crop from which to start calibration.
 +
* Calibrate phenology (level 1)
 +
* Analyse calibration results: WRMSE's, TSUM1, TSUM2, TSUM1+TSUM2, TSUM1/TSUM2, outliers
 +
* Optionaly correct input data (e.g. zonation, crop mask, agropheno data , weather data,...) and restart calibration if needed
 +
* Implement calibrated TSUMS and simulate full archive over full geographic extent
 +
* Calculate metrics (long term average crop simulation characteristics) over full archive and full geographic extent
 +
* Calculate yield forecast
 +
* Compare metrics and forecast with operational crop
 +
* Validation with sub data sets.
 +
 
 +
Optionally continue calibration:
 +
* start calibration at the next level (e.g. 2 or 3 and/or 4)
 +
* Implement calibrated parameters and simulate full archive over full geographic extent
 +
* Calculate metrics
 +
* Calculate yield forecast
 +
* Compare metrics and forecast with operational crop
 +
* Validation with sub data sets.
 +
 
 +
===Calibrated crops===
 +
 
 +
{|class="wikitable"
 +
! WINDOW !! MODEL      !! Status          !! Crop name                  !! Crop_no !! Data sets  !! Calibration tool !! Level   
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Sugar beet || CGMS/KUL-Univ. DB || CGMS/KUL Univ. & MOCA DB || Recalibration || WOFOST
+
| rowspan="27" | Europe (EUR) || rowspan="23" | WOFOST || rowspan="9" | Operational || Winter Wheat || 1 || 2-4 || ? || 1       
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Potato || CGMS/KUL-Univ. DB || CGMS/KUL Univ. & MOCA DB || Recalibration || WOFOST
+
| Grain maize                || 2      || 2-6        || Calplat          || 1       
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Sunflower || CGMS/KUL-Univ. DB || CGMS/KUL Univ. & MOCA DB || Recalibration || WOFOST
+
| Spring Barley              || 3      || 2-6        || Calplat          || 1, 3   
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Durum wheat || See winter wheat || See winter wheat || Calibration || WOFOST
+
| Rye                        || 4      || 2-5        || Calplat          || 1       
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Winter Barley || CGMS/KUL-Univ. DB || CGMS/KUL Univ. and MOCA DB || Calibration || WOFOST
+
| Sugar beet                || 6      || 2-4        || ?                || 1 + SPAN
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Rye || No data available || MOCA DB || Calibration || WOFOST
+
| Potato                    || 7      || 2-4        || ?                || 1 + SPAN
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Oat || No data available || MOCA DB || Calibration || WOFOST
+
| Field beans                || 8      || 3          || ?                || -       
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Spring Rape seed || CGMS/KUL-Univ. DB || CGMS/KUL Univ. & MOCA DB || Calibration || WOFOST
+
| Winter Rapeseed            || 10      || 2-6        || Calplat          || 1, 2, 3 
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Field beans || CGMS/KUL-Univ. DB || MOCA DB || Calibration || WOFOST
+
| Sunflower                  || 11      || 2-4        || ?                || 1 + SPAN
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Field Peas || No data available || MOCA DB || Calibration || WOFOST
+
| rowspan="8" | Under revision || Winter Wheat Vernalisation || 90 || 2-14, 16 || Calibration Man. || 0, 1, 3 
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Soy Bean || CGMS/KUL-Univ. DB || MOCA DB || Calibration || WOFOST
+
| Winter Wheat              || 91      || 2-5        || Calplat          || 0 + SPAN
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Rice || CGMS/KUL-Univ. DB || No data available || Calibration || WOFOST
+
| Field beans                || 92      || 2-5        || Calplat          || 1       
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Rye Grass || LINGRA & PASK DB || PASK DB || Recalibration || LINGRA
+
| Sunflower                  || 93      || 2-5        || Calplat          || 1       
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Alfalfa || PASK DB || PASK DB || Calibration || LINGRA
+
| Winter Rapeseed            || 94      || 2-5        || Calplat          || 1       
 
|-
 
|-
−
|Tomato || No data available || No data available || Calibration || CGMS SYTEM
+
| Spring Barley              || 95      || 2-6        || Calplat + WCC    || 1, 3   
 +
|-
 +
| Spring Barley Ukraine      || 96      || 2-7, 15-16 || Calibration Man. || 1, 3   
 +
|-
 +
| Grain maize Ukraine        || 97      || 2-7, 15-16 || Calibration Man. || 1, 3   
 +
|-
 +
| rowspan="6" | Not operational || Field Peas || ? || 3 || ? ||         
 +
|-
 +
| Oat                        || ?      || 3          || ?                ||         
 +
|-
 +
| Winter Barley              || 13      || 2-4        || ?                || -       
 +
|-
 +
| Spring Rape seed          || ?      || 2-4        || ?                ||         
 +
|-
 +
| Soy Bean                  || ?      || 3          || ?                ||         
 +
|-
 +
| Rice                      || ?      || ?          || ?                ||         
 +
|-
 +
| rowspan="2" | LINGRA || rowspan="2" | Not operational || Rye Grass || ? || 1 || ? ||
 +
|-
 +
| Alfalfa                    || ?      || 1          || ?                ||         
 +
|-
 +
| WARM || Operational    || Rice                      || 5      || ?          || ?                || ?       
 +
|-
 +
| ?          || Not operational || Tomato                     || ?      || ?          || ?                ||        
 +
|-
 +
| rowspan="6" | Russia Kazakhstan (RUK) || rowspan="6" | WOFOST || rowspan="5" | Operational || Winter wheat 2008 || 1 || 19-20 || rowspan="5" | Calplat || 1, 3   
 +
|-
 +
| Winter wheat 2012 || 2      || 19-20      || 1, 3   
 +
|-
 +
| Spring wheat 2008 || 3      || 19-20      || 1       
 +
|-
 +
| Spring wheat 2012 || 4      || 19-20      || 1       
 +
|-
 +
| Grain maize 2008  || 5      || 21        || 1       
 +
|-
 +
| Under revision  || Grain maize Rus/Kaz || 89 || 14 || Calibration Man. || 1, 3       
 +
|-
 +
| rowspan="5" | China (CHN) || rowspan="2" | WOFOST || rowspan="5" | Not operational || Winter wheat || 1 || ? || rowspan="5" | Calplat || 1 ,3   
 +
|-
 +
| Grain maize        || 2      || 21    || 1 ,3   
 +
|-
 +
| rowspan="3" | WARM || Rice early season || 3 || 21 || 1
 +
|-
 +
| Rice middle season || 4      || 21    || 1
 +
|-
 +
| Rice late season  || 5      || 21    || 1
 
|}
 
|}
  
−
The calibration consist in the following subtasks:
 
−
* Consistency check of the datasets (area of interest, make decisions how to calibrate the models and which part of the DBs to exploit).
 
−
* Coherent recalibration from EU15 to EU25 with the results of the consistency check of the existing crops.
 
−
* Calibration of new crops at EU25 level. This includes verifications of the consistency of the CGMS output by runnin simulations up to level 3 in order to verify the output obtained using the new crop parameters.
 
−
*Validation with sub data sets.
 
−
 
−
The calibration and the validation can be done according to one of the following strategy/approaches based on the data availability:
 
−
*Strong: Based on complete sets of crop parameters from experimental fields.
 
−
*Medium: Based exploiting as much as possible the crop parameters data available in the DBs.
 
−
*Light: Based on TSUM derived from CGMS level 1 and basic crop calendars. As the information of crop start-emergence/flowering/end-of-maturity at grid level are the basic information available in the system, the main tables which are analyzed are the {{Object|GRID_WEATHER}} and the {{Object|LONG_TERM_AVERAGE_GRID_WEATHER}} to relate meteo data with calendar day to calculate crop TSUM.
 
 
[[Category:Crop Simulation]]
 
[[Category:Crop Simulation]]

Latest revision as of 13:07, 12 April 2018



Calibration tools

Different tools are available to calibrate crop parameters. Some tools are more suitable for local calibration, other tools are more suitable for regional calibrations. Sometimes crop parameters can be calculated or estimated using other tools.

  1. WOFOST Control Centre: user interface to run wofost crop model and interactive selection of crop-, soil-, weather-files. Changes interactively model parameters. Analyse results in table and graphical format. Used for manually local calibrations.
  2. Calplat. Optimization platform to create zonations and execute automatic calibrations.
  3. Calibration Manager. Python script that combines Python wofost with open optimizer NLopt to automatically calibrate multiple zones and multiple parameters.
  4. Various tools (e.g. xls, scripts, gis,...)

AgroPheno database

The agropheno data are stored in a relational database that contains observations from experimental sites, expert knowledge and regional calendars with their metadata. The metadata can be used to select sources or types of data to be included in the calibration. XY locations of experimental sites and regional calendars are mapped to grid numbers of the regular target agro climatic grids that are defined for each regional window. The database contains the following data sets: 

1  PASK: pasture data from candidate member States
2  Boons-Prins study, inserted in 2005
3  MOCA: crop data from candidate member states, inserted in 2005
4  Crop-KUL: crop parameters, inserted in 2006
5  GEOSYS/ASEMARS, inserted in 2006 and 2007
6  ZAMG (Zentralanstalt fur meteorologie und geodynamik), inserted in 2008
7  AETS: Data for Ukraine and Turkey, inserted in 2016
9  MARS Activity-B-2001, inserted in 2016
10 Bilateral Austria, inserted in 2016
11 Bilateral Germany, inserted in 2016
12 Bilateral Slovakia, inserted in 2016
13 Bilateral Slovenia, inserted in 2016
14 Bilateral Russia/Kazakhstan, inserted in 2016 
15 MOCCASIN project, inserted in 2017
16 MARSOP4 - general targets for LAI and HI, inserted in 2017
17 GLOBAM, inserted in 2009
18 Huabei CGMS, inserted in 2009
19 RUBKA, inserted in 2009
20 Asia CGMS (I. Savin), inserted in 2009
21 FAO crop calendars

Calibration levels

The following calibration levels are identified for regional and local calibrations. Most calibrations start with level 1, optionally followed by 2 or 3 and/or 4. They are executed in this order, gradually further optimizing results. Level 0 is not considered an agro phenological calibration. In this case parameters are calculated or estimated, using causal relationships other than with agropheno data.

Level Regional Local
0: calculate/estimate e.g. TSUM1, TSUM2, VERNSAT, VERNBASE, DLO,... e.g. TSUM1, TSUM2, VERNSAT, VERNBASE, DLO,...
1: Phenology TSUM1, TSUM2 TSUMEM, TBASEM, TSUM1, TSUM2, DLO, DLC, TEFFMX
2: Potential yield level - simple AMAXTB AMAXTB, SLATB, SPAN
3: Potential yield level - complex SLATB, SPAN, FOTB AMAXTB, SLATB, SPAN, RGRLAI, LAIEM, TDWI, FLTB, FRTB, FOTB, TMPFTB, RDRRTB
4: Water limited yield level CFET, RDMCR CFET, RDMCR, PERDL, DEPNR

Required agropheno data for the respected levels and resolutions:

Level Regional Local
0: calculate/estimate depending on causal relation depending on causal relation
1: Phenology Regional calendars or observations of sowing, emergence, flowering, maturity and harvest observations of sowing, emergence, flowering, maturity and harvest for different years
2: Potential yield level - simple Observations of total biomass under optimal conditions for locations or regions observations of LAI-max and total biomass under optimal conditions
3: Potential yield level - complex Observations of LAI-max, total biomass, storage organs and/or harvest index under optimal conditions for locations or regions observations of LAI, total biomass, weights of leaves, stems, storage organs and roots over time during the growth period under optimal conditions
4: Water limited yield level Observations of total biomass, storage organs and/or harvest index under rainfed conditions for locations or regions observations of LAI, total biomass, weights of leaves, stems and storage organs and possibly crop transpiration, evaporation and rooting depth over time during the growth period under water-limited conditions

Calibration steps

The calibration consist in the following subtasks:

  • Consistency check of the datasets (area of interest, agropheno data).
  • Select calibration tool
  • Select or create zonation and crop mask
  • Select default crop from which to start calibration.
  • Calibrate phenology (level 1)
  • Analyse calibration results: WRMSE's, TSUM1, TSUM2, TSUM1+TSUM2, TSUM1/TSUM2, outliers
  • Optionaly correct input data (e.g. zonation, crop mask, agropheno data , weather data,...) and restart calibration if needed
  • Implement calibrated TSUMS and simulate full archive over full geographic extent
  • Calculate metrics (long term average crop simulation characteristics) over full archive and full geographic extent
  • Calculate yield forecast
  • Compare metrics and forecast with operational crop
  • Validation with sub data sets.

Optionally continue calibration:

  • start calibration at the next level (e.g. 2 or 3 and/or 4)
  • Implement calibrated parameters and simulate full archive over full geographic extent
  • Calculate metrics
  • Calculate yield forecast
  • Compare metrics and forecast with operational crop
  • Validation with sub data sets.

Calibrated crops

WINDOW MODEL Status Crop name Crop_no Data sets Calibration tool Level
Europe (EUR) WOFOST Operational Winter Wheat 1 2-4  ? 1
Grain maize 2 2-6 Calplat 1
Spring Barley 3 2-6 Calplat 1, 3
Rye 4 2-5 Calplat 1
Sugar beet 6 2-4  ? 1 + SPAN
Potato 7 2-4  ? 1 + SPAN
Field beans 8 3  ? -
Winter Rapeseed 10 2-6 Calplat 1, 2, 3
Sunflower 11 2-4  ? 1 + SPAN
Under revision Winter Wheat Vernalisation 90 2-14, 16 Calibration Man. 0, 1, 3
Winter Wheat 91 2-5 Calplat 0 + SPAN
Field beans 92 2-5 Calplat 1
Sunflower 93 2-5 Calplat 1
Winter Rapeseed 94 2-5 Calplat 1
Spring Barley 95 2-6 Calplat + WCC 1, 3
Spring Barley Ukraine 96 2-7, 15-16 Calibration Man. 1, 3
Grain maize Ukraine 97 2-7, 15-16 Calibration Man. 1, 3
Not operational Field Peas  ? 3  ?
Oat  ? 3  ?
Winter Barley 13 2-4  ? -
Spring Rape seed  ? 2-4  ?
Soy Bean  ? 3  ?
Rice  ?  ?  ?
LINGRA Not operational Rye Grass  ? 1  ?
Alfalfa  ? 1  ?
WARM Operational Rice 5  ?  ?  ?
 ? Not operational Tomato  ?  ?  ?
Russia Kazakhstan (RUK) WOFOST Operational Winter wheat 2008 1 19-20 Calplat 1, 3
Winter wheat 2012 2 19-20 1, 3
Spring wheat 2008 3 19-20 1
Spring wheat 2012 4 19-20 1
Grain maize 2008 5 21 1
Under revision Grain maize Rus/Kaz 89 14 Calibration Man. 1, 3
China (CHN) WOFOST Not operational Winter wheat 1  ? Calplat 1 ,3
Grain maize 2 21 1 ,3
WARM Rice early season 3 21 1
Rice middle season 4 21 1
Rice late season 5 21 1
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